The autumn pilot seasons begins

The new pilot season has started and summer’s six week forecasts are changing into autumn’s forecast products. Six week forecasts aim at supporting weather sensitive activities and helping Finnish people to prepare themselves for the upcoming weather conditions.

Six week forecasts developed in the CLIPS project describe the weather conditions for the upcoming period of 3-6 weeks on a weekly level. In Autumn the first ones to be launched were the forecasts estimating the weather conditions for the biking, sailing and spending time at the summer cottage. Also the winter tire outlook and the first version of the Storm outlook are out.

Skiing season outlook is under work and it will be part of both autumn and winter seasons. Pilot users will receive an email notification when new forecast products are launched. Forecast products about the growing season and growing degree days remained as part of the service until the end of September.

Biking and sailing weather outlooks support outdoor activities

Biking weather outlook is an enhanced version of the Summer’s sport weather outlook and it can also support the planning of other outdoor activities. Biking weather outlook estimates, whether the conditions to hop on a bike are mild, cool, chilly or almost freezing. Outlook also acknowledges the variation in the conditions during different times of a day: the forecast maps present biking conditions in the morning, daytime and evening for each week.

In addition, the biking outlook estimates the share of dry weather conditions during the week. Here dry weather means weather conditions without rain or with very small amount of rain. Therefore the outlook can be used to consider, whether some of the weeks will be more dry or more rainy than the others.

Sailing weather outlook points out, how optimal the weather conditions are for sailing in the upcoming weeks. Sailing weather outlook combines two different forecasts: one for wind (so called wind roses) and another for rain. The wind forecast is made for six locations representing different sea areas which have a measurement station nearby. The wind forecasts describe relative distribution of the wind direction and wind speed during weekly periods in Sea of Åland, Kvarken, Bay of Bothnia, Archipelago Sea, Bothnian Sea and Gulf of Finland. The rain forecast estimates the number of rainy days for each forecasted week.

The pilot users have helped in fine-tuning the Sailing outlook. In a user gallup some weather parameters, such as wind and rain, turned out to be more important when it comes to sailing conditions and the thresholds of those parameters were upgraded according to the opinions of the test users that had sailing as a hobby. Sailing outlook could be used to support other sea-related activities as well.

Winter brings both trouble and opportunities

Winter tire outlook and skiing season outlook aim at predicting the beginning of winter conditions and help the citizens to prepare for them. It shows, when approximately it is time to put on the winter tires for the car or take out the pair of skis from the warehouse.

Cottage season outlook gives hints, when the weather conditions are not anymore favoring the favourite Finnish activity: spending time in the summer cottage. It can also give tips when to start preparing the cottage for winter, e.g., emptying the water pump before the first nights with minus degrees. In practice, the outlook estimates the amount and probability of days when the temperature drops below zero on a weekly level. It also describes how the upcoming 3-6 weeks will be when it comes to rain. We asked pilot users to define which kind of weather conditions determine the ending of the cottage season in their case and Cottage season outlook is based on these opinions.

Traces of storm in the air?

The first version of the storm outlook looks at the high-pressure and low-pressure areas, their location and strength. The weather type with strong low-pressure areas could also bring autumn storms with them. Storm outlook aims at foreseeing the situations, when there are strong low-pressure areas and the conditions are therefore favoring strong winds and stormy weather.

Did you get interested in the Six week forecasts? It’s unfortunately all only in Finnish but if that’s not a problem we welcome new pilot users throughout the project – come along!