The six week forecast provides an overview up to six weeks ahead, focusing mainly on the week-to-week changes in the weather.
The six week forecast gives an outlook of possible changes in weather conditions usually in weekly periods and hence, they are not representing just one single day. Precise weather information (i.a. temperature, wind, cloud cover, rain) for certain location and time can only be predicted for 10-15 days ahead at the best (depending on weather type). However, in weekly outlooks up to six weeks, it is possible to provide information about the variability in weather and its impacts. For instance, an estimate can be made about the beginning and duration of a heat wave and its impacts to different regions in Finland.
The accuracy of six week forecasts strongly depends on the weather conditions that one is predicting and also on the season. For instance, storms and their tracks are very challenging to predict, but we can say if the risk for storms is increasing or decreasing. We can also indicate where in Europe that is and how is Finland affected in comparison to other areas. There are also periods when the climate is more predictable than during other periods. During such ‘windows of opportunity’ users can benefit the most from the six week forecasts. The progress made in the improvement of six week forecast is fast and forecast information is used in various economy sectors to support decision-making.
Unlike weather forecasts which have a long development history in meteorology, the forecasts up to six weeks have been developed for just a few decades. Six week forecasts have not yet been developed for public use like weather forecasts and therefore, CLIPS project is providing all new outcomes.
Six week forecasts provide support and guidelines for planning for instance the outdoor and other weather sensitive activities. We assume that they could be useful for decision makers in sectors susceptible to climate variability, and they can be tailored to the user needs of various sectors, e.g., energy, transportation, tourism, agriculture and forestry, water, financial and insurance sectors.
Already at the present time, there would be use for forecasts up to six weeks. We believe that by better visualization and communication, the use of six week forecasts can be increased taking into account both the user needs and the best scientific tools. The aim is to have an interactive learning process both ways.
You can sign up as a piloter – then you’ll gain access to the service, where the six week forecasts are published.